Around ten years ago, on one of Wigan’s typically wet and windy wintry days, I remember heading to a Council event for local businesses in which we were to hear all about the recently announced HS2 line. The press had been full of the news about the UK’s biggest infrastructure project in decades for months. The debate raged about the huge investment costs versus the potential benefits; would it really bring economic prosperity to ‘The North’ and at what financial and environmental cost?
I must admit to being highly sceptical myself, whilst the investment was great, surely it would just make it faster for people to leave town rather than encourage the capital’s businesses to look North? And would that money be better spent on improving east-west links from Liverpool to Leeds, which have been and remain appalling. Then again, there was no need to worry about that as we’d been promised electrification of these lines which would definitely improve things and the Government couldn’t go back on such a promise, surely not?
The event was very well attended with most of the local businesses represented and many recognisable faces in the audience, all chatting about the same debate. There was a full quota of Council big wigs, of course there was, this was big news for the town and, whilst I’m fairly sure they had absolutely zero input into the plan, that wasn't going to stop them taking the credit. Various department directors, from inward investment and business through to the Chief Exec and the Council Leader himself, stood up tell us what a good thing this was going to be for Wigan. As I recall, none of them really provided any compelling evidence to back this up, they each just repeated slightly different versions of what a good thing this was going to be for Wigan.
Then an engineering consultant from HS2 was introduced to explain precisely why this was going to be a good thing for Wigan. Actually, he did put a pretty compelling argument together by referencing Lille in France. and comparing it to Wigan. It too was an industrial town faced with some of the same problems after the decline of the coal mining and textile industries. Then, in 1993, a high-speed TGV train line was opened connecting Paris with Lille in one hour, a catalyst for a rejuvenation of the town which has transformed its economy with the Services sector now accounting for over 90% of employment. The consultant assured us that indeed, HS2 was going to be a good thing for Wigan. The line was coming through, in around ten years, our two stations would be rebuilt to create one new super station that would become the ‘gateway to the North’. It’s fair to say that most of the business audience came away with our scepticism largely dispelled and, whilst it was a long way off, we could see that it could only have a positive impact on the town’s prosperity - ‘Wigan will be the new Lille’ he assured us.
Just over ten years later, HS2 hasn’t arrived in Wigan and now we know it isn’t going to. The worst kept secret of the last couple of weeks, that the northern leg of HS2 is going to be cancelled, was duly announced by the Prime Minister at the Tory conference held in Manchester, of all places. You have to admire his bravery I suppose, or could it be that he doesn’t give a flying f$%&?
The given reason is spiraling costs, which is indisputable, and this does provide an easy and logical rationale. However, there does seem to be a different attitude towards costs based on, you guessed it, location. The North-South divide is never more apparent than when it comes to comparing inward investment. Take a recent example like The Elizabeth line, the costs of which never seemed to be questioned. The original budget of £14.8 billion rose to £18.9 billion during the three year build, only about £4 billion out which is around 30% which is not too bad compared to HS2 which has seen estimates increase from the original £37.5 billion in 2009 to £106.6 billion. On the other hand, the Elizabeth line equates to a cost of around £0.3 billion a mile to build, which is very similar to HS2’s total costs even at the latest high estimates. London gets 24 times as much spent on infrastructure that the rest of the country and this only seems to increase - it went up by 25% in 2021 for example. When it comes to transport this means that £3,636 is spent per person in London, but in the North it’s just £1,247 per person. Did I hear someone say ‘leveling up’?
The many reasons for the cost increases are varied and complex. The press is full of all the detail from the rising costs of materials and ballooning consultants’ fees onto the delays themselves which have been a big, but largely avoidable factor. One reason in particular, stood out to me. The most expensive parts to build are tunnels, the longest of which is under the Chilterns to protect its beautiful countryside, fair enough. The MPs whose constituencies sit on top of this are - I’m sure it's total coincidental - Conservative ones and they successfully lobbied to increase the tunnel length to protect more of the landscape. You can’t argue that this is a good thing, however to then use increased costs as the reason to stop the line at Birmingham seems completely disengenuous. Not to mention the writing off of huge amounts already spent such as buying property and land. Although they could find the money to build the bit into Euston, that’s in London though, so it doesn’t count.
By way of compensation, the PM also promised, in his Manchester speech, that all the money due to be spent on the Manchester HS2 leg, will now be invested in improving the rail in the North from Leeds to Liverpool. This is so long overdue as anyone who has the misfortune to use the network will testify. The worst cancellation record in the country makes it a literal lottery as to whether your train will be there or not, basically you’ve got a 50-50 chance. Old rolling stock, some of which can only be described as rank. Too little rolling stock, rush hour trains are rammed to the rafters so an early morning trip into Manchester is usually avoided. A quick example from my own experience. It’s about 55 miles from Wigan to Leeds. It takes just over an hour to drive there usually, notwithstanding two very busy stretches of motorway which are unavoidable. The train? 1 hour 45 minutes, at best. I'm not sure how can it take virtually twice as long to go by train? And that’s on a good day. I recently came back from Leeds on a Sunday, admittedly the worst day as there are fewer trains. The train from Leeds to Manchester takes an unbelievable 1 hour 46 minutes to cover the 40 miles. And it’s late, so the connecting train to Wigan from Piccadilly is missed meaning a further 50 minute wait for the next one, which would then take a further 1 hour 11 minutes to reach Wigan. That’s the best part of 4 hours journey time to travel 55 miles. I got an Uber from Piccadilly.
As I've mentioned, Rishi Sunak has promised that the money saved from cancelling the Manchester leg of HS2 will go into improving the Northern Rail infrastructure. Again, as mentioned, this is long overdue and very much needed, in fact many people reasonably argued that the HS2 money should’ve been invested in this in the first place. But the Government promised this was going to happen as well, until they cancelled it ten years later. They promised HS2, until they cancelled it ten years later. And now there’s another promise, but it’s very hard to believe someone when keeps lieing to you isn’t it? Almost immediately they backtracked removing projects from the new infrastructure investment list which included some that had already been built or previously accounted for. You can almost see the £36 billion evaporating.
What does it mean for Wigan? Presumably the new super station is off the cards now. This would have rejuvenated the worst end of the town. Wallgate is dominated by vaping shops, betting shops and the kind of bars that are occupied all day with people who clearly have no jobs. Walking up the street, you' take your life in your own hands at certain times of the day. You need to keep an eye out for people staggering about high on drink or drugs generally looking for a fight. Your feet sticking to pavements coated in last night’s takeaways. It's not pleasant. More significantly, the dream of Wigan becoming the ‘gateway to the North’ and all the economic benefits that would bring, has gone too. The businesses that would have relocated to Wigan with London less than 90 minutes away, not to mention the town being bang in between Liverpool and Manchester, will now surely not.
Safe to say Wigan will not be the new Lille.